Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 19.349987 22.044505 24.943831 28.291256 32.045144 36.120553 40.875613
2025-01-19 14.394314 17.845827 21.847203 26.812518 32.791239 39.739806 48.408051
2025-01-26 12.689964 16.595785 21.340701 27.498335 35.243748 44.626147 56.811382
2025-02-02 11.390819 15.620550 20.975932 28.204314 37.648975 49.506493 65.447712
2025-02-09 10.064977 14.397742 20.088379 28.039632 38.780030 52.689955 71.956972
2025-02-16 8.901604 13.242376 19.139930 27.646362 39.490798 55.269427 77.721907
2025-02-23 8.101301 12.490584 18.640556 27.769680 40.832912 58.679879 84.692450
2025-03-02 7.476110 11.917441 18.320957 28.082360 42.405458 62.430914 92.264402
2025-03-09 6.866393 11.301064 17.872218 28.145521 43.582292 65.639815 99.182720
2025-03-16 6.245484 10.604365 17.237037 27.862999 44.199131 68.033926 104.997696
2025-03-23 5.823240 10.178369 16.970703 28.100974 45.576441 71.565900 112.600108
2025-03-30 5.602741 10.056480 17.160686 29.043534 48.059781 76.833118 123.001345
2025-04-06 5.129216 9.481247 16.597838 28.773283 48.669037 79.345748 129.439518
2025-04-13 4.475342 8.538274 15.361391 27.319506 47.298718 78.724743 131.001300
2025-04-20 4.279776 8.380494 15.419241 28.000763 49.404992 83.621855 141.400103
2025-04-27 4.106677 8.246547 15.503874 28.724119 51.607740 88.759262 152.394326
2025-05-04 3.805117 7.847073 15.091981 28.554805 52.284527 91.436008 159.499899
2025-05-11 3.497210 7.407188 14.573028 28.155536 52.530922 93.394715 165.484310
2025-05-18 3.291054 7.145869 14.357837 28.280726 53.684839 96.902439 174.175621
2025-05-25 3.127079 6.953467 14.254825 28.598733 55.186686 101.051004 184.104237
2025-06-01 2.943523 6.704716 14.025729 28.662932 56.226022 104.436708 192.850160
2025-06-08 2.732946 6.380674 13.626696 28.375668 56.598378 106.662126 199.656236
2025-06-15 2.598841 6.206910 13.509083 28.617642 57.954305 110.663829 209.715500